Premier League predictions

Future goals

Team	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12
Arsenal	1.69	1.49	1.35	1.75	1.03	1.83	1.37	3.09	2.87	1.46
Aston Villa	2.06	1.04	2.06	1.49	2.32	1.18	1.48	1.13	1.50	1.52
Bournemouth	2.87	1.89	1.75	1.41	1.91	1.44	1.80	1.93	1.32	1.53
Brentford	1.89	1.56	1.74	1.55	1.74	2.55	1.31	1.38	1.87	1.43
Brighton	1.76	1.85	0.98	1.50	1.77	1.37	1.19	1.84	2.50	3.57
Chelsea	0.88	3.44	1.65	2.10	1.64	3.52	1.93	1.66	1.95	1.15
Coventry City	0.84	1.22	0.75	2.59	1.86	1.34	1.35	1.07	1.29	1.03
Crystal Palace	1.42	2.23	1.36	1.23	1.29	3.41	2.45	1.63	1.77	2.96
Everton	1.34	1.98	1.81	1.94	1.32	0.61	2.23	1.78	1.15	1.32
Fulham	1.42	1.11	1.40	1.52	2.49	1.49	1.22	2.87	0.95	1.53
Hull City	0.92	0.70	1.45	0.93	0.75	0.93	1.18	0.40	0.85	0.72
Ipswich Town	1.23	1.03	1.07	1.33	0.85	0.93	1.80	1.37	1.85	1.36
Leeds United	1.19	3.16	1.57	0.70	1.54	1.33	1.36	2.82	1.22	2.03
Liverpool	2.10	1.88	1.56	1.50	1.51	1.71	1.00	1.46	1.77	1.51
Manchester City	2.78	1.67	2.21	1.64	2.78	1.80	1.99	1.23	2.19	0.94
Manchester Utd	1.59	1.59	1.61	3.43	1.53	2.05	1.49	2.03	1.49	1.99
Newcastle	1.00	0.76	1.66	0.99	1.01	0.76	0.98	0.80	0.52	0.72
Nottingham	3.01	1.45	2.19	1.36	0.94	1.80	1.42	1.40	1.46	1.63
Sunderland	0.95	0.63	0.76	1.08	0.98	1.13	1.19	1.10	0.98	2.04
Tottenham	0.35	0.61	0.63	0.47	0.76	0.46	0.59	0.47	0.78	0.50

Clean sheet probabilities

Team	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12
Arsenal	41%	53%	37%	49%	39%	54%	36%	67%	59%	39%
Aston Villa	39%	23%	53%	21%	36%	16%	29%	13%	37%	25%
Bournemouth	36%	21%	21%	12%	37%	12%	25%	25%	23%	21%
Brentford	38%	15%	19%	22%	21%	39%	24%	15%	31%	13%
Brighton	30%	29%	25%	34%	27%	18%	13%	25%	42%	48%
Chelsea	18%	49%	17%	24%	26%	63%	22%	33%	29%	19%
Coventry City	6%	15%	11%	37%	46%	22%	30%	16%	17%	13%
Crystal Palace	24%	35%	20%	25%	17%	46%	55%	23%	27%	48%
Everton	20%	54%	34%	39%	19%	16%	37%	34%	15%	22%
Fulham	24%	15%	20%	26%	47%	26%	22%	45%	11%	21%
Hull City	12%	3%	19%	14%	8%	7%	16%	4%	8%	5%
Ipswich Town	12%	10%	16%	21%	6%	16%	30%	14%	45%	21%
Leeds United	17%	46%	25%	17%	21%	32%	16%	62%	14%	35%
Liverpool	29%	33%	17%	19%	17%	25%	25%	19%	22%	26%
Manchester City	43%	20%	46%	22%	42%	30%	30%	24%	38%	23%
Manchester Utd	26%	18%	24%	62%	21%	23%	14%	32%	17%	23%
Newcastle	5%	4%	23%	7%	9%	3%	10%	5%	5%	2%
Nottingham	70%	35%	47%	29%	35%	39%	26%	29%	26%	31%
Sunderland	15%	22%	10%	22%	14%	26%	25%	18%	22%	60%
Tottenham	4%	13%	12%	3%	15%	2%	8%	5%	15%	12%

Team strength

Team	Attack	Defence	Goal difference
Arsenal	1.36	0.58	0.79
Manchester City	1.63	0.87	0.76
Nottingham	1.31	0.76	0.55
Chelsea	1.52	1.01	0.51
Manchester Utd	1.48	1.02	0.46
Liverpool	1.39	1.00	0.39
Brighton	1.37	0.99	0.38
Brentford	1.40	1.09	0.31
Bournemouth	1.41	1.12	0.29
Crystal Palace	1.31	1.04	0.27
Leeds United	1.21	1.04	0.18
Fulham	1.10	1.09	0.02
Aston Villa	1.10	1.11	-0.00
Everton	1.06	1.08	-0.02
Sunderland	0.88	1.09	-0.21
Coventry City	0.99	1.35	-0.36
Ipswich Town	0.99	1.38	-0.39
Hull City	0.69	1.82	-1.13
Newcastle	0.73	2.10	-1.37
Tottenham	0.46	1.87	-1.41

Predicted table

#	Team	xGD	xPts
1	Arsenal	42.75	79.69
2	Manchester City	42.62	76.88
3	Chelsea	28.15	69.93
4	Nottingham	26.94	67.46
5	Manchester Utd	21.56	63.88
6	Brighton	22.67	63.70
7	Liverpool	18.43	62.02
8	Brentford	16.72	61.34
9	Leeds United	10.93	59.22
10	Bournemouth	14.48	59.02
11	Crystal Palace	9.23	57.60
12	Everton	1.72	53.04
13	Aston Villa	-3.70	50.15
14	Fulham	-0.88	49.93
15	Sunderland	-10.99	45.18
16	Ipswich Town	-20.96	41.67
17	Coventry City	-22.33	38.93
18	Hull City	-53.23	27.18
19	Newcastle	-67.89	21.38
20	Tottenham	-76.21	13.26

Fair table

The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.

#	Team	MP	GD	xGD	Pts	xPts
1	Manchester City	2	4	3.16	6	5.01
2	Manchester Utd	2	1	3.84	3	4.74
3	Arsenal	2	4	2.38	6	4.71
4	Liverpool	3	2	0.80	5	4.47
5	Brentford	2	3	3.60	4	4.45
6	Chelsea	2	2	2.42	6	4.37
7	Ipswich Town	3	-4	-1.89	3	3.85
8	Brighton	2	3	1.91	3	3.48
9	Nottingham	2	-1	0.74	1	3.27
10	Sunderland	2	0	-0.05	3	2.69
11	Crystal Palace	2	-5	-0.71	0	2.40
12	Leeds United	2	1	-0.45	4	2.27
13	Coventry City	2	-4	-1.11	0	2.12
14	Everton	2	2	-1.16	4	1.94
15	Bournemouth	2	-1	-1.29	1	1.87
16	Tottenham	2	-5	-2.94	0	1.73
17	Hull City	2	3	-1.32	6	1.62
18	Newcastle	2	2	-1.82	4	1.55
19	Fulham	2	-2	-1.93	0	1.29
20	Aston Villa	2	-5	-4.18	0	0.62