Premier League predictions
Future goals
| Team | GW38 |
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| Arsenal | 1.40 |
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| Aston Villa | 1.07 |
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| Bournemouth | 1.64 |
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| Brentford | 1.30 |
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| Brighton | 1.58 |
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| Burnley | 1.09 |
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| Chelsea | 1.64 |
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| Crystal Palace | 1.01 |
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| Everton | 1.14 |
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| Fulham | 1.42 |
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| Leeds United | 1.43 |
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| Liverpool | 1.85 |
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| Manchester City | 2.15 |
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| Manchester Utd | 1.39 |
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| Newcastle United | 1.50 |
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| Nottingham Forest | 1.39 |
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| Sunderland | 1.04 |
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| Tottenham Hotspur | 1.31 |
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| West Ham United | 1.29 |
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| Wolves | 1.15 |
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Clean sheet probabilities
| Team | GW38 |
|---|
| Arsenal | 36% |
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| Aston Villa | 11% |
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| Bournemouth | 24% |
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| Brentford | 15% |
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| Brighton | 24% |
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| Burnley | 31% |
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| Chelsea | 35% |
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| Crystal Palace | 24% |
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| Everton | 26% |
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| Fulham | 22% |
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| Leeds United | 27% |
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| Liverpool | 27% |
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| Manchester City | 34% |
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| Manchester Utd | 20% |
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| Newcastle United | 24% |
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| Nottingham Forest | 19% |
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| Sunderland | 19% |
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| Tottenham Hotspur | 31% |
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| West Ham United | 23% |
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| Wolves | 33% |
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Team strength
| Team | Attack | Defence | Goal difference |
|---|
| Arsenal | 1.29 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
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| Manchester City | 1.52 | 0.99 | 0.53 |
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| Chelsea | 1.37 | 1.08 | 0.29 |
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| Liverpool | 1.31 | 1.03 | 0.28 |
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| Manchester Utd | 1.30 | 1.08 | 0.23 |
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| Bournemouth | 1.35 | 1.18 | 0.17 |
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| Newcastle United | 1.30 | 1.13 | 0.17 |
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| Crystal Palace | 1.23 | 1.09 | 0.14 |
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| Brighton | 1.20 | 1.07 | 0.13 |
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| Brentford | 1.26 | 1.15 | 0.11 |
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| Leeds United | 1.16 | 1.08 | 0.08 |
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| Aston Villa | 1.08 | 1.16 | -0.08 |
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| Fulham | 1.03 | 1.15 | -0.13 |
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| Everton | 0.99 | 1.15 | -0.16 |
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| Tottenham Hotspur | 0.93 | 1.15 | -0.22 |
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| Nottingham Forest | 0.96 | 1.22 | -0.25 |
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| West Ham United | 0.97 | 1.23 | -0.26 |
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| Sunderland | 0.79 | 1.20 | -0.41 |
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| Wolves | 0.78 | 1.25 | -0.47 |
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| Burnley | 0.71 | 1.48 | -0.77 |
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Predicted table
| # | Team | xGD | xPts |
|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 44.00 | 85.00 |
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| 2 | Manchester City | 42.00 | 78.00 |
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| 3 | Manchester Utd | 19.00 | 71.00 |
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| 4 | Aston Villa | 7.00 | 65.00 |
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| 5 | Liverpool | 10.00 | 60.00 |
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| 6 | Bournemouth | 4.00 | 57.00 |
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| 7 | Sunderland | -6.00 | 54.00 |
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| 8 | Brighton | 6.00 | 53.00 |
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| 9 | Brentford | 3.00 | 53.00 |
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| 10 | Chelsea | 6.00 | 52.00 |
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| 11 | Fulham | -4.00 | 52.00 |
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| 12 | Newcastle United | -2.00 | 49.00 |
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| 13 | Everton | -3.00 | 49.00 |
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| 14 | Leeds United | -7.00 | 47.00 |
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| 15 | Crystal Palace | -10.00 | 45.00 |
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| 16 | Nottingham Forest | -3.00 | 44.00 |
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| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | -9.00 | 41.00 |
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| 18 | West Ham United | -19.00 | 39.00 |
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| 19 | Burnley | -37.00 | 22.00 |
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| 20 | Wolves | -41.00 | 20.00 |
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Fair table
The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.
| # | Team | MP | GD | xGD | Pts | xPts |
|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 44 | 35.06 | 85 | 74.51 |
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| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 42 | 26.79 | 78 | 68.68 |
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| 3 | Chelsea | 38 | 6 | 16.21 | 52 | 59.78 |
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| 4 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 19 | 16.05 | 71 | 59.74 |
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| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 10 | 10.79 | 60 | 58.19 |
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| 6 | Brighton | 38 | 6 | 9.27 | 53 | 57.46 |
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| 7 | Bournemouth | 38 | 4 | 6.19 | 57 | 56.74 |
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| 8 | Newcastle United | 38 | -2 | 7.37 | 49 | 56.10 |
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| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 3 | 7.03 | 53 | 56.09 |
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| 10 | Crystal Palace | 38 | -10 | 7.21 | 45 | 55.81 |
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| 11 | Leeds United | 38 | -7 | 1.53 | 47 | 53.89 |
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| 12 | Aston Villa | 38 | 7 | -5.23 | 65 | 46.84 |
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| 13 | Fulham | 38 | -4 | -6.96 | 52 | 46.00 |
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| 14 | Everton | 38 | -3 | -8.94 | 49 | 44.80 |
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| 15 | Tottenham Hotspur | 38 | -9 | -13.26 | 41 | 43.03 |
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| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | -3 | -13.01 | 44 | 42.63 |
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| 17 | West Ham United | 38 | -19 | -14.32 | 39 | 41.93 |
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| 18 | Sunderland | 38 | -6 | -15.71 | 54 | 39.81 |
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| 19 | Wolves | 38 | -41 | -23.98 | 20 | 36.44 |
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| 20 | Burnley | 38 | -37 | -42.08 | 22 | 24.69 |
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