Premier League predictions

Future goals

Team	GW32	GW33	GW34	GW35	GW36	GW37	GW38
Arsenal	1.96	1.27	1.66	1.82	1.68	2.36	1.46
Aston Villa	1.26	1.61	1.22	1.67	1.58	1.28	1.04
Bournemouth	0.84	1.32	1.77	1.76	1.46	1.52	1.50
Brentford	1.79	1.80	1.35	2.04	1.25	1.77	1.25
Brighton	1.70	1.45	1.53	1.19	1.72	1.29	1.48
Burnley	0.97	0.84	0.85	0.80	1.00	0.47	1.07
Chelsea	1.82	1.97	1.69	2.20	1.49	2.38	1.86
Crystal Palace	1.52	1.90	1.17	1.47	1.66	1.39	0.97
Everton	1.08	1.12	1.21	1.12	1.05	1.41	1.19
Fulham	0.97	1.16	1.39	0.66	1.50	1.21	1.27
Leeds United	1.23	1.75	1.44	2.13	1.49	1.60	1.52
Liverpool	1.97	1.59	1.94	1.48	1.87	1.60	2.00
Manchester City	1.57	1.17	2.14	1.64	2.06	1.77	2.02
Manchester Utd	1.77	1.38	1.81	1.53	1.56	1.84	1.41
Newcastle United	1.45	1.95	0.85	1.76	1.52	2.06	1.48
Nottingham Forest	1.29	1.68	1.13	1.00	1.17	0.97	1.39
Sunderland	1.14	0.83	1.05	0.89	0.94	0.83	0.97
Tottenham Hotspur	1.15	1.28	1.15	1.07	1.30	1.02	1.31
West Ham United	1.46	1.10	1.36	1.13	0.79	1.01	1.35
Wolves	1.02	0.89	1.23	1.18	0.87	1.11	1.17

Clean sheet probabilities

Team	GW32	GW33	GW34	GW35	GW36	GW37	GW38
Arsenal	43%	31%	42%	51%	45%	62%	38%
Aston Villa	27%	43%	24%	34%	36%	20%	13%
Bournemouth	14%	14%	23%	23%	22%	16%	24%
Brentford	33%	31%	16%	32%	12%	24%	13%
Brighton	37%	27%	18%	17%	41%	20%	24%
Burnley	18%	18%	11%	11%	20%	9%	31%
Chelsea	20%	25%	21%	36%	15%	36%	37%
Crystal Palace	23%	33%	14%	17%	34%	17%	23%
Everton	16%	20%	25%	19%	18%	43%	26%
Fulham	13%	16%	29%	16%	23%	33%	22%
Leeds United	17%	41%	17%	44%	27%	27%	25%
Liverpool	37%	32%	31%	21%	22%	27%	28%
Manchester City	16%	28%	42%	32%	28%	21%	35%
Manchester Utd	29%	13%	25%	22%	38%	37%	22%
Newcastle United	21%	26%	19%	30%	30%	36%	28%
Nottingham Forest	28%	43%	34%	11%	21%	15%	22%
Sunderland	31%	20%	32%	30%	21%	24%	15%
Tottenham Hotspur	32%	23%	29%	18%	22%	9%	30%
West Ham United	36%	14%	29%	13%	18%	12%	21%
Wolves	23%	17%	31%	41%	17%	29%	34%

Team strength

Team	Attack	Defence	Goal difference
Arsenal	1.31	0.65	0.65
Manchester City	1.45	0.97	0.49
Chelsea	1.53	1.08	0.45
Liverpool	1.41	0.97	0.44
Newcastle United	1.30	1.03	0.27
Manchester Utd	1.28	1.05	0.23
Brentford	1.29	1.15	0.13
Crystal Palace	1.20	1.12	0.08
Bournemouth	1.28	1.22	0.06
Leeds United	1.18	1.12	0.05
Brighton	1.15	1.10	0.05
Aston Villa	1.07	1.13	-0.06
Fulham	1.00	1.14	-0.14
Everton	0.94	1.13	-0.19
Nottingham Forest	0.93	1.17	-0.24
West Ham United	0.98	1.29	-0.31
Tottenham Hotspur	0.95	1.26	-0.32
Wolves	0.79	1.21	-0.42
Sunderland	0.73	1.22	-0.48
Burnley	0.72	1.47	-0.76

Predicted table

#	Team	xGD	xPts
1	Arsenal	45.48	83.94
2	Manchester City	36.35	74.83
3	Manchester Utd	14.88	65.95
4	Aston Villa	5.44	64.01
5	Liverpool	11.66	61.04
6	Chelsea	19.06	60.24
7	Brentford	4.60	56.14
8	Everton	-0.00	54.29
9	Brighton	4.77	53.21
10	Newcastle United	0.93	52.88
11	Fulham	-3.70	51.88
12	Bournemouth	-3.30	50.87
13	Sunderland	-7.24	50.28
14	Crystal Palace	-3.31	49.23
15	Leeds United	-9.04	43.96
16	Nottingham Forest	-13.59	40.68
17	Tottenham Hotspur	-12.25	38.22
18	West Ham United	-24.22	36.62
19	Burnley	-34.75	25.43
20	Wolves	-31.78	25.37

Fair table

The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.

#	Team	MP	GD	xGD	Pts	xPts
1	Arsenal	31	39	30.33	70	63.42
2	Manchester City	30	32	21.05	61	56.08
3	Chelsea	31	15	18.32	48	51.74
4	Manchester Utd	31	13	15.05	55	51.43
5	Liverpool	31	8	13.09	49	51.00
6	Newcastle United	31	-1	7.09	42	47.05
7	Bournemouth	31	-2	3.40	42	46.56
8	Brentford	31	4	6.99	46	45.76
9	Crystal Palace	30	-2	5.56	39	45.10
10	Brighton	31	4	4.69	43	43.73
11	Leeds United	31	-11	0.42	33	43.14
12	Fulham	31	-1	-3.81	44	36.73
13	Aston Villa	31	5	-5.64	54	36.65
14	Everton	31	2	-8.01	46	35.67
15	West Ham United	31	-21	-13.40	29	33.84
16	Nottingham Forest	31	-12	-11.29	32	33.20
17	Tottenham Hotspur	31	-10	-14.52	30	32.48
18	Wolves	31	-30	-19.52	17	31.00
19	Sunderland	31	-4	-14.06	43	30.32
20	Burnley	31	-28	-35.74	20	20.30