Premier League predictions

Future goals

Team	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17	GW18	GW19	GW20	GW21
Arsenal	2.18	1.41	1.79	1.51	2.07	1.43	1.76	1.85	1.45	1.57
Aston Villa	1.06	1.51	1.04	0.75	1.27	1.44	1.02	0.61	1.40	1.00
Bournemouth	1.85	1.51	1.52	1.49	1.39	2.19	1.25	1.21	0.89	1.87
Brentford	1.32	2.36	0.78	1.64	1.67	1.56	1.65	2.01	1.33	1.99
Brighton	1.61	1.41	1.67	1.93	1.15	1.94	0.76	1.57	2.30	1.10
Burnley	0.87	0.74	0.85	0.68	0.90	0.73	0.89	0.84	0.72	1.00
Chelsea	2.17	1.08	1.53	1.51	1.84	1.41	1.93	1.86	1.27	1.52
Crystal Palace	1.69	1.99	2.08	1.46	1.50	1.47	2.18	1.79	1.35	1.86
Everton	1.18	1.21	1.06	1.41	1.03	0.76	1.52	1.15	1.31	1.52
Fulham	1.53	1.26	1.06	1.20	1.48	1.37	1.24	0.97	1.12	1.23
Leeds United	1.37	0.90	1.28	1.16	1.08	1.25	1.29	0.95	1.47	1.00
Liverpool	2.31	2.09	2.58	1.75	2.11	2.12	2.48	2.15	1.74	1.00
Manchester City	1.43	1.91	1.54	2.28	1.45	2.28	1.66	1.86	1.83	1.87
Manchester Utd	1.60	1.24	1.95	1.53	1.62	1.37	1.50	1.88	1.33	1.88
Newcastle Utd	1.39	1.33	2.01	2.36	1.62	1.60	1.49	1.92	1.56	1.67
Nott'ham Forest	0.93	1.29	1.23	1.05	1.59	1.06	1.09	1.29	1.10	1.27
Sunderland	0.72	0.88	0.63	0.60	0.82	0.71	0.89	0.74	0.87	0.72
Tottenham	0.64	1.36	1.02	1.36	1.19	1.19	1.04	1.11	1.64	1.10
West Ham	1.05	1.15	1.18	1.04	1.35	0.89	1.30	1.28	1.23	1.41
Wolves	1.04	0.93	1.19	1.22	0.52	1.10	0.79	0.99	1.32	0.88

Clean sheet probabilities

Team	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17	GW18	GW19	GW20	GW21
Arsenal	53%	34%	46%	47%	60%	47%	47%	54%	41%	37%
Aston Villa	25%	40%	19%	22%	26%	25%	14%	16%	33%	16%
Bournemouth	35%	41%	35%	22%	20%	48%	19%	16%	24%	33%
Brentford	20%	48%	17%	26%	34%	33%	29%	33%	27%	49%
Brighton	27%	28%	35%	35%	12%	49%	17%	28%	48%	15%
Burnley	11%	9%	12%	9%	23%	11%	22%	15%	10%	15%
Chelsea	42%	25%	28%	23%	36%	20%	36%	30%	16%	29%
Crystal Palace	35%	29%	43%	30%	23%	29%	35%	38%	21%	37%
Everton	20%	27%	22%	35%	16%	24%	41%	28%	27%	41%
Fulham	49%	26%	21%	23%	41%	35%	27%	17%	18%	22%
Leeds United	35%	15%	22%	17%	19%	23%	41%	12%	26%	19%
Liverpool	39%	32%	53%	31%	32%	30%	45%	39%	33%	21%
Manchester City	25%	41%	35%	55%	22%	41%	34%	48%	28%	33%
Manchester Utd	31%	14%	31%	29%	25%	24%	22%	37%	23%	37%
Newcastle Utd	24%	30%	36%	51%	44%	25%	22%	43%	26%	37%
Nott'ham Forest	10%	24%	30%	24%	30%	25%	19%	32%	25%	24%
Sunderland	22%	22%	8%	10%	20%	14%	27%	16%	19%	14%
Tottenham	11%	28%	13%	19%	20%	12%	11%	13%	42%	15%
West Ham	16%	12%	14%	14%	28%	10%	29%	21%	27%	28%
Wolves	18%	22%	29%	22%	13%	21%	8%	15%	29%	22%

Team strength

Team	Attack	Defence	Goal difference
Arsenal	1.34	0.63	0.72
Liverpool	1.61	0.95	0.65
Manchester City	1.42	0.91	0.52
Chelsea	1.40	1.05	0.35
Crystal Palace	1.35	1.02	0.33
Newcastle Utd	1.24	1.00	0.24
Brentford	1.24	1.08	0.16
Brighton	1.21	1.07	0.14
Bournemouth	1.15	1.08	0.08
Manchester Utd	1.22	1.20	0.02
Everton	0.98	1.07	-0.09
Leeds United	0.99	1.09	-0.10
Fulham	0.95	1.08	-0.13
Aston Villa	0.98	1.12	-0.15
Nott'ham Forest	0.98	1.17	-0.19
Tottenham	1.02	1.32	-0.30
West Ham	0.98	1.30	-0.32
Wolves	0.83	1.26	-0.43
Sunderland	0.66	1.30	-0.64
Burnley	0.68	1.55	-0.87

Predicted table

#	Team	xGD	xP
1	Arsenal	40.4	80.4
2	Liverpool	26.7	71.0
3	Manchester City	33.1	71.0
4	Chelsea	21.5	64.5
5	Crystal Palace	17.3	62.2
6	Bournemouth	2.9	57.7
7	Brighton	8.1	57.2
8	Brentford	6.1	57.2
9	Manchester Utd	2.6	56.5
10	Newcastle Utd	6.6	55.5
11	Aston Villa	-2.5	51.5
12	Everton	-4.8	49.5
13	Tottenham	-3.1	47.9
14	Fulham	-7.3	46.0
15	Leeds United	-14.7	45.1
16	Nott'ham Forest	-17.1	41.5
17	Sunderland	-19.7	40.6
18	West Ham	-22.6	39.5
19	Wolves	-34.1	28.7
20	Burnley	-39.2	28.5

Fair table

The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.

#	Team	MP	GD	xGD	Pts	xPts
1	Arsenal	11	15	12.90	26	24.01
2	Manchester City	11	15	9.10	22	21.36
3	Crystal Palace	11	5	6.40	17	19.36
4	Chelsea	11	10	7.20	20	18.20
5	Liverpool	11	1	3.80	18	17.60
6	Brighton	11	2	3.60	16	17.17
7	Brentford	11	0	2.80	16	16.71
8	Manchester Utd	11	1	1.80	18	16.55
9	Newcastle Utd	11	-3	1.80	12	15.50
10	Leeds United	11	-10	-1.80	11	15.16
11	Everton	11	-1	-0.30	15	14.90
12	Bournemouth	11	-1	-2.00	18	14.81
13	Nott'ham Forest	11	-10	-3.10	9	13.55
14	West Ham	11	-10	-4.10	10	13.39
15	Tottenham	11	9	-4.10	18	12.83
16	Sunderland	11	4	-3.20	19	12.77
17	Fulham	11	-4	-3.80	11	12.33
18	Wolves	11	-18	-6.20	2	11.13
19	Aston Villa	11	3	-5.50	18	10.52
20	Burnley	11	-8	-15.30	10	5.76