Premier League predictions

Future goals

Team	GW19	GW20	GW21	GW22	GW23	GW24	GW25	GW26	GW27	GW28
Arsenal	1.94	1.65	1.65	1.57	1.99	1.51	2.12	1.60	1.60	1.95
Aston Villa	0.63	1.56	1.22	1.49	1.10	1.59	1.32	1.65	1.50	1.34
Bournemouth	1.33	1.09	1.82	1.52	1.51	1.52	1.84	1.37	1.70	1.94
Brentford	1.84	1.30	1.84	1.37	1.68	1.41	1.19	1.03	1.79	1.77
Brighton	1.58	2.28	1.21	1.84	1.36	1.67	1.70	1.47	1.44	1.75
Burnley	0.93	0.90	1.08	0.72	1.08	0.93	1.25	0.83	0.85	1.07
Chelsea	2.00	1.32	1.48	1.94	1.49	2.26	1.63	1.83	2.48	0.94
Crystal Palace	1.77	1.27	1.86	1.58	1.80	1.44	1.54	2.34	1.91	1.48
Everton	1.01	1.29	1.35	1.06	1.22	1.08	0.99	1.33	1.30	0.90
Fulham	1.02	1.15	1.37	1.06	1.44	1.12	1.30	0.94	1.20	1.39
Leeds United	1.13	1.66	1.15	1.57	1.25	1.00	1.62	1.32	1.36	1.39
Liverpool	1.99	1.57	1.00	2.63	1.71	1.77	1.73	1.78	1.63	2.40
Manchester City	1.79	2.10	2.21	1.72	2.22	1.72	1.43	2.01	1.83	1.62
Manchester Utd	2.03	1.42	1.91	1.56	0.90	1.76	1.86	1.75	1.40	1.77
Newcastle Utd	1.77	1.73	1.71	1.53	1.85	1.22	1.81	1.47	1.23	1.70
Nott'ham Forest	1.26	1.11	1.27	0.81	1.09	1.29	1.03	1.41	1.12	1.13
Sunderland	0.81	0.77	0.77	0.91	0.89	1.21	0.46	0.79	0.90	0.79
Tottenham	1.09	1.43	1.11	1.55	1.38	1.12	1.08	1.15	0.80	1.02
West Ham	1.35	1.12	1.30	1.08	1.43	1.06	1.37	1.33	1.37	0.89
Wolves	0.93	1.34	0.87	0.99	0.78	1.19	1.14	0.91	0.89	1.17

Clean sheet probabilities

Team	GW19	GW20	GW21	GW22	GW23	GW24	GW25	GW26	GW27	GW28
Arsenal	53%	34%	37%	44%	41%	37%	63%	36%	45%	39%
Aston Villa	14%	33%	16%	35%	16%	24%	16%	23%	26%	31%
Bournemouth	14%	19%	33%	16%	18%	30%	27%	26%	25%	45%
Brentford	34%	28%	46%	14%	34%	20%	16%	20%	24%	34%
Brighton	26%	41%	11%	22%	24%	34%	22%	19%	17%	32%
Burnley	17%	10%	15%	7%	25%	30%	25%	10%	8%	17%
Chelsea	27%	12%	25%	25%	16%	35%	32%	27%	43%	14%
Crystal Palace	36%	18%	29%	40%	22%	28%	18%	44%	41%	17%
Everton	28%	27%	42%	23%	29%	19%	27%	25%	25%	18%
Fulham	17%	21%	23%	21%	26%	17%	37%	13%	41%	36%
Leeds United	14%	24%	18%	35%	30%	22%	36%	16%	22%	20%
Liverpool	32%	32%	19%	49%	22%	30%	24%	45%	33%	41%
Manchester City	45%	27%	30%	21%	46%	33%	18%	39%	29%	25%
Manchester Utd	39%	19%	34%	18%	14%	33%	34%	26%	27%	23%
Newcastle Utd	39%	28%	32%	37%	33%	17%	30%	32%	16%	41%
Nott'ham Forest	36%	21%	27%	21%	19%	24%	20%	40%	20%	17%
Sunderland	17%	24%	16%	21%	24%	40%	12%	17%	30%	14%
Tottenham	16%	46%	16%	34%	34%	18%	16%	23%	20%	25%
West Ham	21%	26%	28%	21%	41%	10%	29%	17%	18%	9%
Wolves	13%	33%	26%	22%	11%	22%	20%	25%	15%	26%

Team strength

Team	Attack	Defence	Goal difference
Arsenal	1.39	0.69	0.70
Manchester City	1.49	0.97	0.52
Liverpool	1.45	0.96	0.49
Newcastle Utd	1.27	0.99	0.28
Chelsea	1.36	1.13	0.23
Crystal Palace	1.28	1.10	0.19
Manchester Utd	1.30	1.15	0.15
Bournemouth	1.27	1.19	0.08
Leeds United	1.16	1.09	0.07
Brentford	1.20	1.15	0.06
Brighton	1.25	1.20	0.06
Aston Villa	1.12	1.17	-0.06
Fulham	0.97	1.09	-0.12
Everton	0.91	1.08	-0.17
Nott'ham Forest	0.95	1.13	-0.18
Tottenham	0.94	1.15	-0.22
Wolves	0.81	1.20	-0.39
West Ham	0.93	1.34	-0.41
Sunderland	0.67	1.23	-0.57
Burnley	0.75	1.47	-0.72

Predicted table

#	Team	xGD	xP
1	Arsenal	42.1	82.6
2	Manchester City	38.5	75.2
3	Liverpool	16.3	67.0
4	Aston Villa	6.9	65.4
5	Chelsea	15.9	59.4
6	Manchester Utd	6.8	58.2
7	Newcastle Utd	8.4	56.5
8	Crystal Palace	4.8	55.7
9	Brentford	2.8	53.9
10	Brighton	3.2	52.8
11	Fulham	-3.9	51.3
12	Everton	-4.3	51.2
13	Bournemouth	-4.1	50.5
14	Tottenham	-0.5	49.2
15	Leeds United	-4.5	48.9
16	Sunderland	-11.5	45.8
17	Nott'ham Forest	-17.0	40.8
18	West Ham	-27.0	34.1
19	Burnley	-35.0	27.3
20	Wolves	-37.9	23.1

Fair table

The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.

#	Team	MP	GD	xGD	Pts	xPts
1	Arsenal	19	25	21.10	45	40.64
2	Manchester City	19	26	16.00	41	36.91
3	Liverpool	19	4	7.40	33	31.73
4	Manchester Utd	19	4	8.40	30	30.98
5	Crystal Palace	19	1	7.30	27	30.43
6	Newcastle Utd	19	2	6.00	26	30.11
7	Leeds United	19	-7	0.40	21	28.56
8	Chelsea	19	11	6.60	30	28.55
9	Brighton	19	1	2.90	25	27.89
10	Bournemouth	19	-6	0.20	23	27.60
11	Brentford	19	2	2.30	27	27.05
12	Fulham	19	-1	-3.40	27	23.72
13	Nott'ham Forest	19	-12	-4.70	18	22.86
14	Everton	19	0	-4.90	28	22.69
15	Tottenham	19	4	-6.90	26	22.12
16	Aston Villa	19	7	-6.10	39	21.56
17	Wolves	19	-29	-10.10	3	20.09
18	West Ham	19	-17	-12.20	14	19.40
19	Sunderland	19	2	-10.40	29	18.60
20	Burnley	19	-17	-19.90	12	13.44