Premier League predictions

Future goals

Team	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16
Arsenal	1.38	1.84	1.35	2.83	2.03	1.62	1.57	1.46	1.81	1.76
Aston Villa	1.62	1.29	1.49	1.16	1.50	1.48	1.47	1.61	1.47	1.21
Bournemouth	1.78	1.37	1.71	1.76	1.57	1.46	1.68	2.67	0.82	2.10
Brentford	1.62	2.32	1.65	1.46	1.83	1.44	1.04	1.61	1.54	2.44
Brighton	2.04	1.36	1.36	1.91	2.37	2.48	1.51	1.39	1.86	2.27
Chelsea	1.46	1.69	1.68	1.50	1.73	1.32	1.94	1.56	1.28	1.83
Coventry City	1.07	1.38	1.39	1.12	1.49	1.10	1.65	1.07	1.40	1.10
Crystal Palace	1.37	2.28	1.35	1.51	1.71	2.62	1.42	1.46	1.63	1.45
Everton	1.39	0.65	1.53	1.68	1.18	1.23	1.19	1.41	1.11	1.04
Fulham	2.32	1.51	1.29	2.01	1.10	1.48	1.19	1.25	1.55	1.23
Hull City	0.82	1.00	1.19	0.46	0.94	0.88	0.88	0.79	0.93	0.71
Ipswich Town	0.99	1.23	1.73	1.34	1.08	1.41	1.36	1.10	1.81	1.09
Leeds United	1.53	1.36	1.31	1.54	1.33	1.94	1.17	1.96	1.18	1.63
Liverpool	1.51	1.72	1.01	1.61	1.70	1.47	1.82	1.47	1.74	1.70
Manchester City	2.54	1.79	2.02	1.56	2.12	0.98	2.05	1.78	2.09	3.20
Manchester Utd	1.48	1.79	1.51	1.88	1.33	1.87	2.01	2.20	1.65	0.85
Newcastle	1.24	1.09	1.20	1.01	0.68	0.96	1.15	1.23	1.21	1.02
Nottingham	1.06	1.88	1.59	1.64	1.52	1.87	2.37	1.80	1.58	1.86
Sunderland	1.10	1.33	1.36	1.35	1.16	1.29	0.99	1.49	1.22	1.48
Tottenham	1.43	0.98	1.29	0.96	1.44	1.00	1.20	0.67	1.50	0.86

Clean sheet probabilities

Team	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16
Arsenal	34%	52%	36%	63%	50%	37%	35%	51%	44%	42%
Aston Villa	28%	16%	27%	15%	31%	24%	30%	23%	24%	16%
Bournemouth	33%	16%	27%	26%	21%	22%	21%	45%	16%	33%
Brentford	22%	36%	20%	14%	30%	15%	20%	16%	21%	36%
Brighton	25%	17%	13%	23%	39%	38%	18%	16%	32%	33%
Chelsea	24%	37%	22%	25%	26%	15%	24%	22%	12%	29%
Coventry City	24%	22%	25%	18%	18%	14%	25%	11%	23%	12%
Crystal Palace	12%	33%	27%	19%	22%	41%	14%	20%	19%	22%
Everton	23%	15%	30%	32%	16%	22%	23%	28%	15%	15%
Fulham	44%	25%	22%	36%	11%	23%	30%	24%	21%	19%
Hull City	9%	9%	17%	5%	9%	7%	9%	6%	22%	4%
Ipswich Town	7%	15%	30%	17%	23%	22%	19%	14%	29%	10%
Leeds United	22%	26%	18%	38%	17%	33%	12%	33%	17%	29%
Liverpool	19%	25%	25%	22%	26%	29%	37%	21%	30%	42%
Manchester City	37%	27%	25%	19%	33%	19%	31%	20%	27%	49%
Manchester Utd	21%	25%	18%	31%	18%	23%	31%	34%	19%	17%
Newcastle	19%	10%	21%	13%	13%	8%	13%	22%	16%	8%
Nottingham	25%	29%	19%	21%	20%	26%	41%	24%	29%	35%
Sunderland	16%	25%	24%	22%	22%	36%	16%	29%	20%	23%
Tottenham	34%	18%	25%	21%	34%	27%	30%	23%	39%	18%

Team strength

Team	Attack	Defence	Goal difference
Arsenal	1.35	0.64	0.71
Manchester City	1.53	0.99	0.54
Nottingham	1.37	1.02	0.35
Liverpool	1.30	1.00	0.31
Brighton	1.37	1.09	0.27
Manchester Utd	1.33	1.08	0.26
Brentford	1.34	1.16	0.18
Bournemouth	1.27	1.11	0.17
Chelsea	1.29	1.13	0.16
Leeds United	1.18	1.11	0.07
Crystal Palace	1.25	1.24	0.01
Fulham	1.11	1.15	-0.04
Aston Villa	1.08	1.17	-0.09
Everton	1.02	1.13	-0.11
Sunderland	0.99	1.16	-0.16
Tottenham	0.86	1.08	-0.22
Coventry City	0.99	1.37	-0.37
Ipswich Town	1.00	1.38	-0.38
Newcastle	0.88	1.51	-0.63
Hull City	0.71	1.73	-1.02

Predicted table

#	Team	xGD	xPts
1	Arsenal	35.78	79.45
2	Manchester City	34.66	76.54
3	Brighton	25.49	64.93
4	Liverpool	13.28	61.50
5	Brentford	13.83	59.01
6	Chelsea	9.44	58.98
7	Nottingham	11.92	58.43
8	Manchester Utd	9.58	56.13
9	Leeds United	7.12	55.78
10	Bournemouth	1.82	52.03
11	Crystal Palace	-1.89	52.02
12	Everton	-3.32	49.90
13	Aston Villa	-8.72	46.79
14	Fulham	-5.65	45.08
15	Sunderland	-11.56	44.41
16	Ipswich Town	-19.26	43.39
17	Tottenham	-15.35	40.39
18	Coventry City	-21.87	40.31
19	Newcastle	-31.85	35.20
20	Hull City	-43.47	27.96

Fair table

The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.

#	Team	MP	GD	xGD	Pts	xPts
1	Arsenal	6	5	6.13	15	12.90
2	Manchester City	7	12	5.43	21	10.93
3	Nottingham	6	-3	2.90	5	10.14
4	Brighton	6	13	3.30	13	9.89
5	Liverpool	7	1	2.72	12	9.42
6	Brentford	7	5	1.81	10	9.16
7	Manchester Utd	6	0	2.58	6	9.09
8	Everton	7	1	-0.29	10	8.82
9	Sunderland	6	-6	0.47	4	8.48
10	Bournemouth	6	-6	0.06	3	8.44
11	Leeds United	6	3	-0.36	9	8.02
12	Tottenham	6	-6	-2.08	3	7.83
13	Ipswich Town	7	-4	-4.15	9	7.81
14	Fulham	7	-3	0.61	5	7.55
15	Aston Villa	7	-4	-2.44	8	7.06
16	Chelsea	7	4	-1.03	13	6.88
17	Hull City	7	1	-3.65	9	6.29
18	Crystal Palace	6	-3	-3.97	7	5.80
19	Newcastle	7	-4	-3.97	8	5.79
20	Coventry City	6	-6	-4.07	6	5.61